I made a table that helps compare an estimate of registered APIA voters against the margin of victory in the presidential race. I’ll be updating this table throughout the night as the returns come in.
Last updated: 1:00AM EST (last update of the night)
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APIA Demographics |
2012 Polling |
2012 Returns |
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| % Pop. | Estimated # Registered Voters | Obama % | Romney % | Margin % | Margin (# Voters) | Obama (%) | Obama (# Voters | Romney (%) | Romney (# Voters) | Margin (# Voters) | Precincts Reporting (%) | |
| National (popular) | 5.6 | 9,526,471 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 1,293,917 | 50 | 59,971,000 | 48 | 57,304,000 | 2,667,000 | 98 |
| Virginia | 5.8 | 258,282 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 36,845 | 50 | 1,797,511 | 48 | 1,731,867 | 44,000 | 100 |
| Nevada | 7.7 | 115,332 | 49 | 46 | 3 | 28,397 | 52 | 529,000 | 46 | 462,000 | 67,000 | 93 |
| Colorado | 2.9 | 81,613 | 50 | 48 | 2 | 47,243 | 51 | 1,231,000 | 47 | 1,120,000 | 111,000 | 90 |
| Florida | 2.4 | 251,560 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 83,277 | 50 | 4,138,000 | 49 | 4,091,000 | 47,000 | 97 |
| Iowa | 1.9 | 32,001 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 45,340 | 52 | 816,000 | 46 | 728,000 | 88,000 | 96 |
| New Hampshire | 2.3 | 16,675 | 50 | 48 | 2 | 14,027 | 52 | 360,000 | 47 | 320,000 | 60,000 | 93 |
| North Carolina | 2.3 | 122,153 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 2,176,000 | 51 | 2,272,000 | 96,000 | 99 |
| Ohio | 1.7 | 107,945 | 50 | 47 | 3 | 168,536 | 50 | 2,672,000 | 48 | 2,571,000 | 101,000 | 90 |
| Wisconsin | 2.4 | 75,395 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 205,772 | 53 | 1,606,000 | 46 | 1,404,000 | 202,000 | 98 |
| California | 13.6 | 2,819,355 | 54 | 39 | 15 | 1,992,938 | 59 | 5,573,000 | 39 | 3,636,000 | 1,699,000 | 69 |
| New York | 7.8 | 835,057 | 60 | 36 | 24 | 1,813,783 | 63 | 3,860,000 | 36 | 2,211,000 | 1,649,000 | 86 |
| New Jersey | 8.7 | 422,092 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 421,149 | 58 | 1,916,000 | 41 | 1,357,000 | 559,000 | 94 |
[...] Over the course of the night, I updated the table with returns as precincts reported in, keeping a c…. In a few important states, President Obama eked out a narrow victory of less than two points: Florida and Virginia. These swing states are also significant in that they are winner-take-all states that represent a large number of electoral votes: 29 electoral votes for Florida and 13 electoral votes for Virginia. These swing states are also notable in that the small margin of victory combined with their relatively populous Asian American communities could have helped deliver both states to the Democratic side. And, with Romney’s flagging numbers in Ohio, most analysts last night agreed that Romney needed a victory in one or both of these other states to win. [...]