An Asian American Quick Reference for the 2012 Returns (Updated)

November 6, 2012

Having a 2012 Election Returns party? I made the following quick reference table which I hope might contextualize the returns, and help identify states wherein Asian American voters might influence the results. You can also download it as a .pdf if you have a burning desire to print it out and fill it in!

The following table identifies the potential number of Asian American registered voters in each state, and the projected margin of victory for the 2012 presidential candidates based on the most recent polling data.

It was hard to identify how many APIA registered voters there are, but some reports suggest that approximately 55% of Asian Americans are registered to vote nationally; I figured this was a good (conservative) estimate for state-wide Asian American voter registration, so I used this number as a way to calculate the potential number of registered voters in each state.

The 2012 predicted margin of victory is calculated based on the most recent polls (most of the numbers obtained from CNN’s “Poll of Polls” — mostly just for convenience’s sake since CNN aggregates their polls in one place), multiplied against the total number of voters that turned out in the 2008 election. Since 2008 had record high voter turnout, if the polls hold true, than the margin of victory in terms of actual number of voters may actually be smaller.

All 2008 numbers were obtained from Wikipedia, and Asian American demographic information were obtained from the U.S. Census.

Of course, this table will only be useful in identifying states wherein the Asian American electorate¬†may have been influential — our actual influence will depend entirely on Asian American voter turnout.

Either way, I will be live-Tweeting the 2012 returns on my Twitter account (@reappropriate) starting at 7pm EST. Please join me!

Updated: New version includes New York and New Jersey.

6 thoughts on “An Asian American Quick Reference for the 2012 Returns (Updated)

  1. Do you have a turnout as a percentage of the registered vote for Asian Pacific Americans. I am a University professor and I am drafting a paper for publication. But I can’t find a number. The turn out [Pew] in 2008 was 48 percent of registrants, but what was it in 2012? Could you email me?Many thanks!
    James A Nathan
    Professor
    Auburn University Montgomery.

  2. Hi James,

    Unfortunately, I do not have the numbers of APIA voter turnout relative to registered voters. The numbers in my post are rough estimates based on total population and an assumption of registered voters based on national numbers. I expect that actual numbers will come out, but because the APIA voter community is relatively understudied, they are unlikely to come out until middle of next year as they are done by independent research groups like the Asian American Justice Centre, which was responsible for the comprehensive study of the Asian American 2008 voter numbers.

    I’m sorry that I couldn’t be of more help in regards to these numbers. Good luck with your study and I would love to help you in any way that I can.

    Good luck!
    -Jenn

  3. Hi James,

    Just a quick follow-up. While I’m still certain that a trustworthy number of registered APIA voters in 2012 still hasn’t been published, I thought that this post that I wrote as a wrap-up of the 2012 election might be of interest to you.

    http://reappropriate.co/?p=2770

    Cheers,
    Jenn

Leave a Reply